Scientists Predict Big Sunspot Cycle Coming
Solar scientists said Monday the next sunspot cycle could be 30 percent
to 50
percent stronger than the last one, and it could begin up to a year
later than
expected – although other scientists dispute the timing prediction.
The peak of the cycle, called the Solar Maximum, generates more frequent
magnetic
storms and ejections of energetic particles that can slow satellite
orbits -
thereby interfering with global navigation – as well as disrupt
communications
and bring down power systems.
During a telephone briefing for reporters Monday, the scientists said
they have
great confidence in the forecast, because their model has matched the
historical
data from the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy.
Their Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to
predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots
across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface
of the
Sun. They said they expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008,
which is about six months to 12 months later than a cycle would normally
start.
Cycle 24 is expected to reach its peak sometime in 2012.
Both groups said the model should help them to forecast sunspot activity
for
two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is
planning in
the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early
2020s.
http://www. spacedaily.
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